National opinion polls in the early part of October show the parties in Austria with similar levels of support to that found in polls taken during September. With changes for all parties within the 3% margin of error, it seems that the voting pattern that emerged last month may be here for a while – the centre-left (SPÖ/Greens) polling strongest with the far-right (FPÖ/BZÖ) back to levels close to that achieved jointly by the two parties at the last general election.
Of real interest this month is data from the ATV quarterly survey which indicates that the ÖVP (Austria’s centre-right party) has not only failed to revive its fortunes, polling in the low 20’s, but is in danger of losing signifcant ground or being relagated to a fringe player in six of Austria’s nine states. The survey analysis talks about `execpt in the black strongholds of Lower Austria, Tyrol, and Vorarlberg‘ the ÖVP massively losing ground everywhere. The survey concludes that currently in Vienna they would probably finish in 4th place and in Carinthia are threatened with polling a single digit result.
The recent scandal involving the SPÖ appears to have done nothing to dent their improved position. Whilst the various scandals and internal conflicts affecting the centre right/far right parties continue to dominate the headlines and their respective polling.
Profil poll: SPÖ 29%, FPÖ 26%, ÖVP 22%, Greens 15%, 3% BZÖ
ATV poll: SPÖ 30%, FPÖ 25%, ÖVP 23%, Greens 13%, 6% BZÖ