The latest national opinion in Austria (this time from Gallup Austria and featured on the neuwal website) confirms the same pattern of voting intentions as other polls earlier in the month for the national parliament.
The SPÖ lead with 30%, followed by the FPÖ 26%, ÖVP 23%, Greens 15%, BZÖ 3%. The three per cent for the BZÖ, if repeated in the actual General Election, would see the party fail to secure any seats in the new parliament. Comparing Octobers results with those in September the performance of the various parties remains consistant (within the normal 3% margin of error for such polls).
When compared with polls in September the results confirm the centre-left parties maintaining a lead over the far-right, with the centre-right continuing to struggle. The SPÖ/Greens combined vote is up one percentage point to around 45%. The combined far right vote of the FPÖ/ BZÖ has dropped by 1% to approximately 29%. The centre-right ÖVP has seen no change in its share of the vote.
As the neuwal website analysis highlight’s, if the Gallup poll was to be the outcome of the next General Election then the SPÖ and ÖVP would be in a postion to maintain the current ruling coalition with 103 seats between them. However, the ÖVP and FPÖ would also have the option of forming a government with a total of 96 seats. A centre-left grouping of the SPÖ and Green, with only 87 seats, would be 5 short of the 92 required to have a majority in parliament. Whilst the formation of an SPÖ/ FPÖ alliance would generate the largest majority, with 109 seats, but is the least likely of all possible future coalitions.