Downsizing Parliament and latest Parties opinion poll


The latest poll here  from Karmasin for Profil shows the same decline in support for the far right FPÖ as the last poll I commented upon.  Unlike that poll the conservative ÖVP now share second spot with the FPÖ:

SPÖ       30%        (+1)

ÖVP       24%        (-1)

FPÖ        24%        (-2)

Greens   13%        (-1)

BZÖ        4%          (+/-0)

Last Friday night the ruling Coalition of the (Social Democrats) SPÖ and ÖVP annonced their long awaited austrity package , promising to reduce Austria’s deficit to zero by 2016. In what is more of a symbolic move than significant cost saving, the cut backs also included plans to reduce the cost of parliament by reducing the szie fo the National Council (equivalent to the UK House of Commons) and the Federal Council (the upper house).

It’s interesting to see the effect on seats in the National Council when the above poll figures are applied to both the current parliament (183 seats) and the new proposal of 165 seats. Overall coaltion options would be unchanged (note : SPÖ have a policy of not forming a coalition with the FPÖ).

           Poll      Change ’08 / ’08 Result  /  183 Seats    /   165 Seats    /  Dif:183/165

SPÖ     30%      (+0.7%)        57               57 (+/-0)             52  (-5)             -5

ÖVP     24%      (-2%)            51               47 (-2)                42  (-9)              -5

FPÖ      24%     (+6.5%)        34                47 (+13)            42 (+8)              -5

Green   13%     (+2.6%)        20                25   (+5)            22 (+2)              -3

BZÖ      4%      (-6.7%)         21                 7   (-14)             7 (-14)             -/+0

 

183 Seats (92 for a majority)

SPÖ/ ÖVP            104

ÖVP/ FPÖ            94

SPÖ/ FPÖ            104

 

165 Seats (83 for a majority)

SPÖ/ ÖVP            94

ÖVP/ FPÖ            84

SPÖ/ FPÖ            94

 

Here’s my updated state of the Parties table based upon an average of the last five polls I’ve seen:

Polls

GE   2008

Change

SPO

28.80%

29.3%

-0.50%

OVP

24.20%

26%

-1.80%

FPO

25.80%

17.5%

8.30%

Greens

13.60%

10.4%

3.20%

BZO

4.40%

10.7%

-6.30%

Others

3.20%

6.1%

-2.90%

Sources: Karmasin/Profil11-0212
Gallup, 04-02-2012
Gallup, 28-01-2012
OMG, 26-01-2012
  Karmasin/Profil14-0112

 

 
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