Coalition Parties 1 : 0 Opposition Parties – Half Time


The political winners in Austria over the first six months of 2012 have been the ruling Coalition. Both Parties have maintained their poll ratings since January whilst the combined share of the polls enjoyed by the opposition Parties in parliament has declined by 4.60%.

Table – Change in polls since January 2012

Polls Av Now Jan-12 Change
SPO 28.80% 28.60% 0.20%
OVP 23.80% 23.80% 0.00%
FPO 24.00% 26.60% -2.60%
Greens 12.80% 13.60% -0.80%
BZO 3.60% 4.80% -1.20%
Others 7.00% 2.60% 4.40%

Two new polls were published in the last weekend of June, both of which show the same positive trend for the governing Coalition in Austria as surveys earlier in the month.

ATV/Hajek 29-06-12

Profil/Karmasin 30-06-12

In my rolling poll of the last five surveys, the SPÖ (Social Democrats) has a clear lead in first place over its main two rivals. Whilst its (conservative) junior partner in government the ÖVP is now neck & neck with the Far-Right FPÖ for second place. The Greens remain steady at around 13% and there has been a slight improvement in the poll ratings of the BZÖ but the (more moderate) Far-Right (or Right-wing Conservative – take your pick) still looks likely to fail to reach the 4% bar needed to secure seats in parliament.

Table – Average rating from 5 most recent polls

Polls GE 2008 Change
SPO 28.80% 29.3% -0.50%
OVP 23.80% 26% -2.20%
FPO 24.00% 17.5% 6.50%
Greens 12.80% 10.4% 2.40%
BZO 3.60% 10.7% -7.10%
Others 7.00% 6.1% 0.90%
Note 1: Pirates only   appeared seperately in Gallup polls
Note 2: Pirates   incorporated into Others in above table until they appear in all polls
Pirates 6.20% 0.0% 6.20%
Sources: Karmasin/Profil 30-06-12
ATV/Hajek 29-06-12
Karmasin/Heute 18-06-12
Gallup 16-06-12
Gallup 12-06-12

The ATV poll has hit the headlines for the number of ‘don’t knows and won’t vote’ which I’ve blogged about here

 

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