Voters continue to abandon Far-Right


In my last blog post looking at Austrian voting intentions I asked the question as to whether the summer polls indicated the beginning of the end for the Far-Right parties in Austria.

Well the question remains open but the most recent polls continue to show the FPÖ now back in third place with their vote further declining from the high watermark achieved earlier this year and the BZÖ heading for the dustbin of political history.

Polls Av Now Jan-12 Change
SPO 28.80% 28.60% 0.20%
OVP 22.20% 23.80% -1.60%
FPO 20.40% 26.60% -6.20%
Greens 14.20% 13.60% 0.60%
BZO 2.60% 4.80% -2.20%
Others 11.60% 2.60% 9.00%

 

The yet to be launched party of Austro-Canadian billionaire Frank Stronach continues to rise in the polls with the last Gallup poll giving his party 10%. My average of polls in which his party is specifically included confirms this upward trend and now puts them above the Austrian Pirate Party for the first time. The Pirates, after making an initial splash with some polls showing them in the low teens, are now in serious decline with the last Gallup poll giving them only 2% support.

Pirates 4.20%
Stronach 7.60%

 

Stronach and Österreich Spricht  (Austria Speaks citizens’ initiative) are both due to launch political parties this month and with other groupings likely to come forward the many anti-establishment/alternative/change voters are going to have far more choice. Polling suggests that Stronach’s grouping in particular has the potential to strip away significant numbers from the scandal ridden FPÖ.

The next three months will set the battlegrounds for next year’s general election. It’s going to be a fascinating time for observers of the political scene here in Austria. For many in Austrian political parties they may be about to understand why the Chinese saying ‘May you live in interesting times’ is not generally considered a complement.

 

Average ratings across five recent opinion   polls
Polls GE 2008 Change
SPO 28.80% 29.3% -0.50%
OVP 22.20% 26% -3.80%
FPO 20.40% 17.5% 2.90%
Greens 14.20% 10.4% 3.80%
BZO 2.60% 10.7% -8.10%
Others 11.60% 6.1% 5.50%
Note 1: Pirates only   appeared separately in Gallup polls
Note 2: Stronach only   apears in Gallup & Karmasin polls
Note 3: Pirates/Stronach   incorporated into Others in above table until they appear in all polls

 

Sources: Gallup   01-09-12
Market/Standard 31-08-12
Gallup 25-08-12
Karmasin/Profil 25-08-12
Gallup 18-08-12

 

 

 

 

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Filed under Austrian Politics, Politics

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