As Team Stronach takes to the pitch and Far-Right head for relegation


Frank Stronach, the Austro-Canadian billionaire and wan-a-be Chancellor of Austria, formally launched his new Party yesterday. With due modesty, Frank has named his Party ‘Team Stronach for Austria’. He declared at a packed press event that the Party’s launch will become a significant date in Austrian and by the way world history too.

Now the reference to world history and the name ‘Team Stronach for….’ did leave me wondering for a moment whether this is the start of a franchise operation? Frank is a very successful businessperson whose main abode still seems to be in Canada and who has interests in many countries. Could we in the future see Team Stronach for….Canada….Switzerland….UK…USA…or..(fill in the blank)?

Love him or loathe him, Frank Stronach is already making an impact. Polls indicate that up to 40% of voters would like to see him involved in the next government. Around 30% say that they would consider voting for his Party. While ‘Team Stronach’ seem to have the potential to scoop up the majority of the large numbers of ‘Other’ in the opinion polls they also look most likely to damage the poll ratings of the Far-Right FPÖ – whose support has been falling already due to scandals.

Two opinion polls yesterday showed support for the Far-Right FPÖ at below 20% and they must be concerned that Team Stronach may well overtake them in the coming months.

If you are interested in the potential impact of Team Stronach and the current developments in the polls, I wrote an analysis of current trends and their impact on the future shape of the government after next year’s general election here.

Below are updated polling data.

Average ratings across five recent opinion polls including Stronach Party

Polls GE 2008 Change
SPO 27.00% 29.3% -2.30%
OVP 22.20% 26% -3.80%
FPO 20.00% 17.5% 2.50%
Greens 13.60% 10.4% 3.20%
BZO 3.00% 10.7% -7.70%
Stronach 11.00% 0.0% 11.00%
Others 4.00% 6.1% -2.10%

Average ratings across five most recent recent opinion polls – change compared to January 2012

Polls Av Now Jan-12 Change
SPO 27.00% 28.60% -1.60%
OVP 22.60% 23.80% -1.20%
FPO 20.60% 26.60% -6.00%
Greens 13.20% 13.60% -0.40%
BZO 3.00% 4.80% -1.80%
Others 13.60% 2.60% 11.00%

Average ratings across five most recent recent opinion polls – change compared to General Election 2008

Polls GE 2008 Change
SPO 27.00% 29.3% -2.30%
OVP 22.60% 26% -3.40%
FPO 20.60% 17.5% 3.10%
Greens 13.20% 10.4% 2.80%
BZO 3.00% 10.7% -7.70%
Others 13.60% 6.1% 7.50%
 
Note 1: Pirates only appeared separately in Gallup polls
Note 2: Pirates/Stronach incorporated into Others in above table until they appear in all polls
Pirates 3.00% 0.0% 3.00%
Stronach 11.00% 0.0% 11.00%
 
Sources: Hajek/ATV 27-09-12
IMAS/Krone 27-09-12
Gallup/oe24 23-09-12
Karmasin/profil 22-09-12
OMG/Kurier 16-09-12

Change in support across the political spectrum since last election:

Polls GE 2008 Change
Far-Right FPO/BZO 23.00% 28.20% -5.20%
Right FPO/BZO/OVP/TS 56.20% 54.20% 2.00%
Centre-Right OVP/TS 33.20% 26.00% 7.20%
Coalition SPO/OVP 49.20% 55.30% -6.10%
Centre-Left SPO/Green 40.60% 39.70% 0.90%
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1 Comment

Filed under Austrian Politics, Politics

One response to “As Team Stronach takes to the pitch and Far-Right head for relegation

  1. Pingback: Going on the attack whilst defending on the back foot can be tricky: SPÖ vs Team Stronach | viennalife

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