Polls stable for big three but will it last?


Average ratings from across last five opinion polls:

SPÖ: 25.4%, ÖVP: 22.8%, FPÖ: 21.0%, Greens: 14.4%,  Team Stronach: 10.4%, BZÖ : 2.6%, Others: 3.4%

After the pain of 2011 the conservative ÖVP has had a better time, relatively speaking, in the 2012 polls. For much of the last 18 months trailing in third place they are now regularly polling above the FPÖ, but only because of the significant drop in support for the latter.

The far-Right FPÖ will be pleased to see their poll rating have stabilised after crashing in some poll in September/October to 18%. For now they have managed to stem the loss of support caused by various scandals but continue to look vulnerable to the new player on the right of centre ‘Team Stronach’.

The SPÖ (Social Democrats) will be relieved to see their poll rating having stabilised. They took a dramatic knock in September/October after they failed to effectively deal with their own alleged scandal – managing to make themselves look as tainted as the centre-right & far-Right parties who have faced one serious scandal after another.

Our new right of centre party, ‘Team Stronach’, has settled into steady 10%-11% poll ratings since their launch at the end of April. This is lower than some polling figures pre-launch and a long way short of the 30% target set by their Austrian-Canadian billionaire founder.

The Greens continue to nudge their vote up (currently 4% better than at the last election) but there their green/anti-corruption message has not lifted them out of 4th place in the polls. They are pushing hard on the anti-corruption agenda and this may bring further reward but they like the  ÖVP are particularly vulnerable to losing support to the latest arrival on the political scene Neos (a Liberal centrist party).

The BZÖ has not only lost members of parliament to ‘Team Stronach’ but have probably lost any chance of retaining seats in the parliament after the General Election in September 2013. They are once again registering no more than 2%-3% across the polls (4% is the minimum needed to secure parliamentary representation).

Average ratings from across last five polls and change since January:

Polls Av Now Jan-12 Change
SPO 25.40% 28.60% -3.20%
OVP 22.80% 23.80% -1.00%
FPO 21.00% 26.60% -5.60%
Greens 14.40% 13.60% 0.80%
BZO 2.60% 4.80% -2.20%
Team Stronach 10.40% 0.0% 10.40%
Others 3.40% 2.60% 0.80%

 

Average ratings from across last five polls and change since last General Election:

Polls Av Now GE 2008 Change
SPO 25.40% 29.30% -3.90%
OVP 22.80% 26.00% -3.20%
FPO 21.00% 17.50% 3.50%
Greens 14.40% 10.40% 4.00%
BZO 2.60% 10.70% -8.10%
Team Stronach 10.40% 0.00% 10.40%
Others 3.40% 6.10% -2.70%

 

Change in support across the political spectrum since last General Election:

Polls GE 2008 Change
Far-Right FPO/BZO 23.60% 28.20% -4.60%
Right FPO/BZO/OVP/TS 56.80% 54.20% 2.60%
Centre-Right OVP/TS 33.20% 26.00% 7.20%
Coalition SPO/OVP 48.20% 55.30% -7.10%
Centre-Left SPO/Green 39.80% 39.70% 0.10%

 

Sources: Gallup/oe24 11-11-12
Gallup/oe24 28-10-12
IMAS/Krone 26-10-12
Gallup/oe24 21-10-12
Karmasin/Profil 20-10-12

 

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