Greens share fourth place in tonight’s poll


I don’t generally focus on one poll but I’ve been writing today about the Greens and here we have the IMAS poll, featured in tonight’s Krone.at, with figures showing the Greens now sharing fourth place with Team Stronach:

SPÖ: 26%-28%, ÖVP: 22%-24%, FPÖ: 18%-20%, Greens: 11%-13%, Team Stronach: 11%-13%, BZO: 4%-6%, Pirates: 2%-3%

The paper seems quite excited by this but when you add the results into my running average of the last five opinion polls the position is not quite as dramatic:

Average ratings from across five most recent polls & change since General Election 2008 

Polls Av Now GE 2008 Change
SPO 25.80% 29.30% -3.50%
OVP 22.80% 26.00% -3.20%
FPO 20.40% 17.50% 2.90%
Greens 13.80% 10.40% 3.40%
BZO 3.20% 10.70% -7.50%
Team Stronach 10.80% 0.00% 10.80%
Others 3.20% 6.10% -2.90%

 

Comparing the current crop of polls to the figures when Team Stronach was launched (27th September 2012) the situation has changed very little.

 

Polls Av Now 27/09/2012 Change
SPO 25.80% 27.00% -1.20%
OVP 22.80% 22.20% 0.60%
FPO 20.40% 20.00% 0.40%
Greens 13.80% 13.60% 0.20%
BZO 3.20% 3.00% 0.20%
Team Stronach 10.80% 11.00% -0.20%
Others 3.20% 3.20% 0.00%

 

What may worry the Greens more at the moment is that this is the first poll since the SPÖ scandal to show support potentially below 13%. The small recovery in SPÖ support has been matched by a decline in Green ratings.Their current average figure is now virtually unchanged in comparison with their performance in January 2012.

Average ratings from across five most recent polls since January 2012

Polls Av Now Jan-12 Change
SPO 25.80% 28.60% -2.80%
OVP 22.80% 23.80% -1.00%
FPO 20.40% 26.60% -6.20%
Greens 13.80% 13.60% 0.20%
BZO 3.20% 4.80% -1.60%
Team Stronach 10.80% 0.0% 10.80%
Others 3.20% 2.60% 0.60%

 

Also of interest in IMAS poll and my running averages is the confirmation of the FPÖ in third place and losing the battle for second with the ÖVP.

Sources:

IMAS/Krone 13-11-12
Gallup/oe24 11-11-12
Gallup/oe24 28-10-12
IMAS/Krone 26-10-12
Gallup/oe24 21-10-12

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