Put your money on a Coalition of three in 2013


Further update of my running average of current polls and a look at what they suggest about the shape of the government in Austria after the next election.

SPÖ 27%; ÖVP 22.8%; FPÖ 20.4%; Greens 13.8%; Team Stronach 10.8%; BZÖ 1.6%; Others 3.6%

If this was the result at the general election (due September 2013) then the BZÖ would fail to retain seats in the parliament, which would be left with five parties. Assuming that one of the main alternatives (NEOS, Pirates, Communists) don’t achieve the 4% needed to secure representation in the parliament, then the above ‘result’ would require the formation of a three party coalition to produce a majority government.

Realist combinations ranked by joint levels of support in the polls:

63.6% – ÖVP (conservatives)/ Greens/ SPÖ (Social Democrats)

60.6% – Team Stronach (conservative/populist)/ ÖVP (conservatives)/ SPÖ (Social Democrats)

54% – FPÖ (Far-Right)/ Team Stronach (conservative/populist)/ ÖVP (conservatives)

49.8% – ÖVP (conservatives)/ SPÖ (Social Democrats) – Current ruling Grand Coalition

 

Average ratings from across last five polls and change since January:

Polls Av Now Jan-12 Change
SPO 27.00% 28.60% -1.60%
OVP 22.80% 23.80% -1.00%
FPO 20.40% 26.60% -6.20%
Greens 13.80% 13.60% 0.20%
BZO 1.60% 4.80% -3.20%
Team Stronach 10.80% 0.0% 10.80%
Others 3.60% 2.60% 1.00%

 

Average ratings from across last five polls and change since last General Election:

Polls Av Now GE 2008 Change
SPO 27.00% 29.30% -2.30%
OVP 22.80% 26.00% -3.20%
FPO 20.40% 17.50% 2.90%
Greens 13.80% 10.40% 3.40%
BZO 1.60% 10.70% -9.10%
Team Stronach 10.80% 0.00% 10.80%
Others 3.60% 6.10% -2.50%

 

Sources: Market/Standard 16-12-12
Gallup/oe24 16-12-12
Hajek/ATV 15-12-12
Karmasin/Profil 15-12-12
Gallup/oe24 02-12-12

 

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