Referendum win gives conservatives momentum in the polls


Two polls this weekend show the (conservative) ÖVP narrowing the gap on its Grand Coalition governing partner the SPÖ (Social Democrats):

Karmasin

Gallup

SPÖ

27%

27%

ÖVP

26%

25%

FPÖ

21%

21%

Greens

13%

13%

Team Stronach

7%

9%

BZÖ

2%

1%

 

Overall the effect of the Conscription referendum battle, which pitched the two governing parties against each other (and to all intensive purposes sidelined the opposition parties), has been to strengthen the poll ratings of the Coalition which has now crept back above the 50% support mark to 51%.

Other (realistic) coalition oppositions based upon current average poll figures are:

ÖVP/Greens/SPÖ – 64.6%

TS/ ÖVP/ SPÖ – 59.8%

FPÖ/ TS/ ÖVP – 53.4%

The average of the five most recent polls confirms the upward trend of the ÖVP and the downward movement of one of Austria’s newest political parties, Team Stronach:

Polls Av Now

1st Jan ’13

Change

SPO

27.00%

27.00%

0.00%

OVP

24.00%

22.80%

1.20%

FPO

20.60%

20.80%

-0.20%

Greens

13.60%

14.00%

-0.40%

BZO

2.40%

1.60%

0.80%

Team Stronach

8.80%

10.6%

-1.80%

Others

3.60%

3.20%

0.40%

 

Since the launch of Austro-Canadian billionaire Frank Stronach’s party on the 27th September 2012, Team Stronach has lost 2.2% support. This is against the backdrop of pre-launch higher ratings, massive media exposure, and significant spending on advertising.

The Far-Right FPÖ will be relieved to see their vote stabilising after a period of decline. However, they are 6% down in the polls compared to the beginning of 2012 and are seeing voters switch from Team Stronach to the ÖVP rather back to them.

Based upon the last five polls in which they were specially identified, the Austrian Pirate Party are averaging 1.2%.

 

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Filed under Austrian Politics, Politics

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