For the first time since the launch of Team Stronach (TS) back in September 2012 the new Right of Centre party has moved into fourth place in a national opinion poll, overtaking the Greens, and is within touching distance of overhauling the Far-Right FPÖ.
The quarterly Austria Trends survey shows TS at their highest level in any poll at 15%, despite recent coverage of internal Party problems in Lower Austria and chaos in the run-up the Tirol State election where there are currently three competing TS party lists. The Austria Trends poll:
SPÖ: 26%, ÖVP: 23%, FPÖ: 18%, TS: 15%, Greens: 13%, BZÖ 2%, Others: 3%
The poll represents a big jump in support for TS in comparison to other recent polls. It reaffirms the ongoing decline in the FPÖ vote and the stagnation of the Green vote. My prediction that the FPÖ could fall to around 15% continues to look realistic.
Current average based upon last five polls:
SPÖ: 27.0%, ÖVP: 23.6%, FPÖ 19.6%, Greens 13.4%, Team Stronach: 11.2%, BZÖ 1.8%, Others 3.4%
Percentage variation across last five polls:
SPÖ: 26%-28%, ÖVP: 22%-25%, FPÖ 18%-20%, Greens 13%-14%, Team Stronach: 9%-15%, BZÖ 1%-2%