Who’s benefiting from the fall of the Far-Right FPÖ? No it’s not Uncle Frank!


With new polls added to my running average figures, it’s clear that the fall of Far-Right FPÖ is continuing with their poll rating now down to 18.6%. They have dropped 2.2% points since January 2013 and when compared to their average rating in January 2012 they have fallen 8 percentage points.

Current average based upon last five polls:

SPÖ: 26.6%, ÖVP: 24.2%, FPÖ 18.6%, Greens 13.8%, Team Stronach: 10.8%, BZÖ 2.6%, Others 3.4%

Percentage variation across last five polls:

SPÖ: 26%-27%, ÖVP: 23%-25%, FPÖ 18%-19%, Greens 13%-14%, Team Stronach: 9%-15%, BZÖ 1%-4%

So it’s the Stronach effect?

State elections in Lower Austria and Kärnten, combined with polling data, show that as well as attracting previous non-voters Team Stronach (TS) gains more support from former FPÖ supporters than it does from any other party. This suggests that TS both threatens any FPÖ recovery (by now being the main beneficiary of the protest vote) and hastening their further decline (tempting more of the anti-establishment vote away from the FPÖ).

It’s this evidence that has got many of the papers talking about the damage TS is doing to the FPÖ. But look at the average figures since the Austro-Canadian billionaire businessman, Frank Stronach, founded Team Stronach at the end of September 2012:

Party

Sept ’12 Average

Jan’13 Average

Average Now

Diff Sept to Now

Team Stronach

11%

10.6%

10.8%

-0.2%

FPÖ

20%

20.8%

18.6%

-1.4%

So who is benefiting from FPÖ vs Stronach?

Currently the main beneficiary of the decline of the FPÖ and their battle for survival with TS has been the ÖVP (conservatives):

Party

Sept ’12 Average

Jan’13 Average

Average Now

Diff Sept to Now

Team Stronach

11%

10.6%

10.8%

-0.2%

FPÖ

20%

20.8%

18.6%

-1.4%

ÖVP

22.2%

22.8%

24.2%

2%

I suspect that by the time of the General Election it will be TS that have most benefited from a continued decline of the FPÖ but it hasn’t happened yet. As for the ÖVP the addition of more right learning votes may help their vote share hold up if more liberal ÖVP switch to NEOS or the Greens – either of which is a real possibility.

And what’s been happening to the others since the arrival of Uncle Frank?

Party

Sept ’12 Average

Jan’13 Average

Average Now

Diff Sept to Now

SPÖ

27%

27%

26.6%

-0.4%

Greens

13.6%

14%

13.8%

+0.2%

BZÖ

3%

1.6%

2.6%

-0.4%

Others

3.2%

3.2%

3.4%

+0.2%

Sources: IMAS/krone 06-04-13
Gallup/oe24 06-04-13
Karmasin/heute 04-04-13
Market/Standard 02-04-13
Hajek/ATV 31-03-13
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Filed under Austrian Politics, Politics

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