National polls show Coalition consolidating but will they survive the next two State elections?


Comparison of Aprils national polls with those at the beginning of the year show the conservative ÖVP narrowing the gap on its Grand Coalition government partner the SPÖ (Social Democrats),  whose own poll ratings have remained virtually unchanged.

The (Far-Right)  FPÖ rating has dropped 2 points in the same period and 7.8 percentage points since January 2012.

Becalmed would be the best term to describe the poll performances of the remaining three Parties in the current parliament.

The only other notable trend has been the small but steady increase in Others, moving back towards the 6.1% figure at the last general election and despite the emergence of Team Stronach. If NEOS are able to continue to attract media coverage and/or the Austrian Pirates revive their fortunes then we may well see additional Parties being regularly listed by all polling companies and with growing percentage ratings.

Current average based upon last five polls:

SPÖ: 27.2%,  ÖVP: 24.6%,  FPÖ 18.8%,  Greens 13.6%,  Team Stronach: 9.8%,  BZÖ 2.0%,  Others 4.0%

Percentage variation across last five polls:

SPÖ: 27%-28%, ÖVP: 24%-25%, FPÖ 18%-19%, Greens 13%-14%, Team Stronach: 9%-10%, BZÖ 1%-4%

Polls from Salzburg and Tirol, where State elections will shortly be taking place, indicate that the results for the ÖVP, SPÖ, and FPÖ will not be providing good news headlines to boost their campaigns as we head towards the national election in September. If the polls are accurate the story of these State elections will be the advance of the Greens.

 

Sources:

Karmasin/profil 20-04-13
Gallup/oe24 19-04-13
IMAS/krone 06-04-13
Gallup/oe24 06-04-13
Karmasin/heute 04-04-13

 

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