The provision results for Salzburg State give the Greens an election night to remember, their 19.9% is higher than any of the opinion poll predictions. Those same polls failed to anticipate the scale of the SPÖ crash.
The figures at the time of writing are:
ÖVP 29.2% (-7.3%), SPÖ 23.6 (-15.8%), Greens 19.9% (+12.5%), FPÖ 17.3% (+4.3), Team Stronach 8.4% (+8.4%)
So what does this mean for the Parties?
It’s extremely good news for the Greens. They are now the third largest party in the State, have advanced in all four of this year’s State elections, and have in Salzburg exceeded their current national polling average figure.
As the lead partner in the outgoing State government the SPÖ were always likely to suffer at the ballot box, but the polls had suggested that they would secure something in the high 20’s. This is a bad night for the Social Democrats but it’s also marks three out of four State elections where the Party has lost support – the exception being the big win in Kärnten.
The Far-Right FPÖ have seen their vote go up this evening, on the face of it they too are winners. However, a year ago this result would have looked poor as they would have expected to scoop up the votes wanting to punish the SPÖ and ÖVP for the financial scandal. Tonight is the first of the four State elections this year in which their vote hasn’t dropped is the only real comfort for a party that is now only the fourth strongest in Salzburg and whose national support has tumbled in the 15 months.
Oddly, the ‘winner’ tonight doesn’t have that much to cheer about. The ÖVP may now be the largest party in the State but they lost 7.3% points from an already historic low. The Party has topped the poll in three out of four States this year but in all four elections its support has declined.
Finally, the party of Austro-Canadian billionaire Frank Stronach, ‘Team Stronach’, will be pleased to have secured seats in the parliament – something they failed to do last week in Tirol. However, in three State elections this new Right of Centre Populist party has failed to achieve the 10% it is currently recording as its national poll average. Frank may need a new business plan before the general election in September.
Current national average ratings based upon last five polls:
SPÖ: 27.2%, ÖVP: 24.6%, FPÖ 18.8%, Greens 13.6%, Team Stronach: 9.8%, BZÖ 2.0%, Others 4.0%
Percentage variation across last five polls:
SPÖ: 27%-28%, ÖVP: 24%-25%, FPÖ 18%-19%, Greens 13%-14%, Team Stronach: 9%-10%, BZÖ 1%-4%