Volatile electorate or a rogue poll?


Two every different views of the state of the Parties in Austria have been published in the last twenty-four hours.

Exhibit one is the Karmasin/profil poll published yesterday. Very much in line with other surveys since the Salzburg State election, showing the Greens (left-centre) on the rise, the SPÖ (Social Democrats) declining, ÖVP (conservatives) slightly up, FPÖ (Far-Right) slipping a little further. The only difference to other polls being the better figure given to Team Stronach (Right-populist):

SPÖ 26%,  ÖVP 25%,  FPÖ 18%,  Greens 16%,  Team Stronach: 10%,  BZÖ 2%, (16th May 2013: Karmasin/profil)

Now exhibit two, the IMAS/Krone poll published today. This suggests a complete reversal of fortune for the ruling Grand Coalition with both the SPÖ and ÖVP just below the 30% mark, as well as for the Greens who appear to have fallen back significantly. The FPÖ figure remains consistent with other polls and the Team Stronach figure is at the low end of the current crop of surveys:

SPÖ 28-30%,  ÖVP 27-29%,  FPÖ 18-20%,  Greens 11-13%,  Team Stronach: 6-8%, BZÖ 2-4%, Others 1-3%  (17th May 2013: IMAS/Krone)

As Austrian polls generally have a fairly wide variable range I tend to avoid commenting on individual surveys, instead focusing upon the running average figure across the most recent five polls and looking at the underlying trends. But the IMAS poll is of note because it’s significantly out of line with other recent polls which have shown every similar figures and trends. It seems like a rogue poll but I’m going to look a little further at it when I can track down the full available data.

In the next week or two we will see whether IMAS have picked up on the start of a new trend or whether their survey is a blip in the ongoing story recorded by the other polls – a Green advance, the Coalition battling each other to be first with less than 25% of the vote, and the decline of the Far-Right. There is a third possibility with would be a true nightmare for all the party strategists, the electorate really has become extremely volatile – an argument that has some credence given the results in the four recent State elections.

Current national average ratings based upon last five polls:

SPÖ: 26.8%,  ÖVP: 25.2%,  FPÖ 18.8%,  Greens 14.6%,  Team Stronach:  8.8%,  BZÖ 2.2.%,  Others 3.6%

 

Sources:

IMAS/Krone 17-05-13
Karmasin/profil 16-05-13
Market/Standard 10-05-13
Gallup/oe24 09-05-13
Karmasin/heute 03-05-13

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2 Comments

Filed under Austrian Politics, Politics

2 responses to “Volatile electorate or a rogue poll?

  1. Pingback: If only 52% of voters have made a choice are the polls worth looking at? Well actually yes. | viennalife

  2. Pingback: IMAS poll continues to tell a different story about Austrian politics | viennalife

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