In sight of the finishing line and in Austria only the EU looks certain to win


It’s time for the last big push from all the parties before Austria goes to the polls on 25th May in the EU parliamentary elections. How are they doing as we enter the final week?

Current polls

Average figures based on last five EU polls:

  Polls Av Now Euro 2009 Change
SPO 24.6% 23.74% 0.9%
OVP 24.4% 29.98% -5.6%
FPO 20.4% 12.71% 7.7%
Greens 13.3% 9.93% 3.4%
Martin 0.0% 17.67% -17.7%
NEOS 11.8% 0.00% 11.8%
BZO 1.3% 4.58% -3.3%
REKOS 1.0% 0.00% 1.0%
Ander 2.5% 0.00% 2.5%
EU-STOP 0.0% 0.00% 0.0%

 

Notes: Martin List not contesting this election; EU-STOP not registering in the polls; NEOS contesting first EU election.

Variations in the last five polls:

  Lowest Highest
SPO 23% 26%
OVP 23% 26%
FPO 20% 21%
Greens 12% 16%
NEOS 10% 14%
BZO 1% 2%
REKOS 0% 2%
Ander 1% 3%
EU-STOP 0% 0%

 

Movement in the polls

The far-Right FPÖ have, after the scandal earlier in the campaign, nudged their poll ratings back into the 20’s but show no signs of advancing. They are -2% in comparison to their January ratings.

All the recent poll movements are between the governing Grand Coalition parties (Social Democrat – SPÖ – and conservative – ÖVP) on one side and the progressives alternatives (Centre left – Greens – and Liberal Centrist – NEOS) on the other.

Currently the strength of the three groupings of progressive alternatives; traditional mainstream; and the populists are:

Polls Av Now
Greens NEOS 25.1%
SPO OVP 49.0%
FPO BZO/REKOS/EUSTOP 22.7%

 

Good news for pro-EU campaign

Based upon the average figures from the most recent polls, parties with a broadly pro-EU position are up +10.5% against the anti-EU camp in comparison to 2009.

At the last election the EU sceptic camp included the FPÖ, BZÖ, List Martin. Their combined support was 34.96%. So at this stage in the campaign the current sceptic flag wavers are down 12.3%.

 

 

Sources:
Unique Research/profil 17-05-14
Gallup/oe24 15-05-14
Hajek/ATV 15-05-14
Market/DerStandard 14-05-14
OMG/Kurier 11-05-14

 

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Filed under Austrian Politics, Politics

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