The most recent opinion poll, I’ve seen, puts the far-right FPÖ only one point behind the centre-left SPÖ. The 28% share of the vote is the highest percentage achieved by the FPÖ since the spring and along with other polls would suggest that they are recovering from a scandal ridden summer which had seen their vote yo-yo between 22% and 27%.
Meanwhile the SPÖ score of 29% remains consistent with figures across the polls this autumn which have shown them receiving a 29% – 30% share of the national vote.
This specific Gallup Austria survey for Oe24.at shows virtually no movement in support for the various parties since the last equivalent poll: SPÖ 29% (-/+0), ÖVP 22% (-1), FPÖ 28% (+1), Greens 13% (-/+0), BZÖ 5% (-/+0). Its significance, if not a blip, is that it puts the combined far-right vote (FPÖ/ BZÖ) back over the 30% mark compared to other recent polls. Whilst the combined centre-left vote (SPÖ/Green) is down three points on the same comparison.
The analysis of these results on the neuwal website suggests that, where it to be the actual result of an Austrian general election, it would allow the current ruling Grand coalition of Social Democrats (SPÖ) and conservatives (ÖVP) to continue. The ÖVP would have the option of forming an alternative coalition with the FPÖ, an option that would also be open to the SPÖ. Whilst the former is conceivable the latter would be highly unlikely. An SPÖ/Green alliance would fail to muster sufficient seats to achieve the 92 required to secure a majority in parliament.
The neuwal analysis of seat distribution always comes with the caveat that it does not take into account regional variations. As voting patterns and opinion ratings for the parties do vary significantly across the nine states, that form the Austrian Federal State, these variations could have a major impact come the 2013 election.
Since writing this piece I have seen this second poll in der Standard which also shows the SPÖ & FPÖ neck and neck, but this time with both Parties are on 27%. Meanwhile the percentage for the ÖVP is higher at 24%, whilst the figures for the Greens 13% and BZÖ 5% remain the same.
So as we go into November the two polls would seem to be suggesting that the race for first spot is back on and the other three parties are stuck at their average performance figures for the year. It will be interesting to see the figures when we reach December. I’m not convinced that these two polls are indicative of what will happen next. But I could be wrong and that’s what makes life interesting.
The latest national opinion in Austria (this time from Gallup Austria and featured on the neuwal website) confirms the same pattern of voting intentions as other polls earlier in the month for the national parliament.
The SPÖ lead with 30%, followed by the FPÖ 26%, ÖVP 23%, Greens 15%, BZÖ 3%. The three per cent for the BZÖ, if repeated in the actual General Election, would see the party fail to secure any seats in the new parliament. Comparing Octobers results with those in September the performance of the various parties remains consistant (within the normal 3% margin of error for such polls).
When compared with polls in September the results confirm the centre-left parties maintaining a lead over the far-right, with the centre-right continuing to struggle. The SPÖ/Greens combined vote is up one percentage point to around 45%. The combined far right vote of the FPÖ/ BZÖ has dropped by 1% to approximately 29%. The centre-right ÖVP has seen no change in its share of the vote.
As the neuwal website analysis highlight’s, if the Gallup poll was to be the outcome of the next General Election then the SPÖ and ÖVP would be in a postion to maintain the current ruling coalition with 103 seats between them. However, the ÖVP and FPÖ would also have the option of forming a government with a total of 96 seats. A centre-left grouping of the SPÖ and Green, with only 87 seats, would be 5 short of the 92 required to have a majority in parliament. Whilst the formation of an SPÖ/ FPÖ alliance would generate the largest majority, with 109 seats, but is the least likely of all possible future coalitions.
National opinion polls in the early part of October show the parties in Austria with similar levels of support to that found in polls taken during September. With changes for all parties within the 3% margin of error, it seems that the voting pattern that emerged last month may be here for a while – the centre-left (SPÖ/Greens) polling strongest with the far-right (FPÖ/BZÖ) back to levels close to that achieved jointly by the two parties at the last general election.
Of real interest this month is data from the ATV quarterly survey which indicates that the ÖVP (Austria’s centre-right party) has not only failed to revive its fortunes, polling in the low 20’s, but is in danger of losing signifcant ground or being relagated to a fringe player in six of Austria’s nine states. The survey analysis talks about `execpt in the black strongholds of Lower Austria, Tyrol, and Vorarlberg‘ the ÖVP massively losing ground everywhere. The survey concludes that currently in Vienna they would probably finish in 4th place and in Carinthia are threatened with polling a single digit result.
The recent scandal involving the SPÖ appears to have done nothing to dent their improved position. Whilst the various scandals and internal conflicts affecting the centre right/far right parties continue to dominate the headlines and their respective polling.
Profil poll: SPÖ 29%, FPÖ 26%, ÖVP 22%, Greens 15%, 3% BZÖ
ATV poll: SPÖ 30%, FPÖ 25%, ÖVP 23%, Greens 13%, 6% BZÖ
After a summer of scandals, rows, and court cases involving the various far-right and centre-right parties in Austria, the latest polls suggest a strengthening of the vote for the centre-left.
Compared with the General Election result in 2011 the SPÖ/Green combined vote is up around 43-44% (+4). The combined far-right vote of the FPÖ/ BZÖ remains at about 29% (-/+0), whilst the centre-right ÖVP have seen their share of the vote drop by approximately -3%.
National opinion polls:
SPÖ 29, ÖVP 23, FPÖ 25, GRÜNE 13, BZÖ 5 (Gallup/ÖSTERREICH, 18.09.2011)
SPÖ 30%, 24% FPÖ, ÖVP 22%, Greens 15%, 4% BZÖ (profil)
A second August national opinion poll seems to confirm the three split between the ‘main’ parties and shows again the Greens on 13%.
At the State level this Lower Austria opinion poll shows that the ÖVP remains, overwhelmingly, the most dominant force in the state whilst amongst the other parties there has been a rise in the FPÖ and decline in the SPÖ share of the vote.
The latest Austrian national opinion poll (wahlumfrage-osterreich) sees all three of the main parties bunched together around the 25% mark. Not good news for either the SPÖ or FPÖ with both parties showing a decline in support over recent months. The third ‘main’ party, the ÖVP, on the other hand continues its gradual upward trend after the big drop in support earlier in the year. The main ‘winner’ is ‘Others’ up to 6%.
The summer progress of the Greens appears to have stalled with their vote back at the 13% mark, whilst the fifth party in the current parliament, the BZÖ, is on 5%.