Tag Archives: TS

Progressives overtake Populist alternatives in the polls for first time


Last weekend’s polls will probably mark the moment when Austrian politics finally shifted away from the Grand Coalition vs Populist Opposition stalemate of recent years.

For the first time the progressive alternatives are out polling the populist parties.

    Polls Av Now GE 2013 Change
Progressives Greens/NEOS 27.0% 17.38% 9.62%
Grand Coalition SPO/OVP 43.6% 50.81% -7.21%
Populists FPO/TS/BZO 26.8% 29.77% -2.97%

 

 

The gap, in the average figures from the most recent 5 polls, may only be 0.2% but the overall change in support since the General Election is a major shift towards a progressive alternative opposition.

Over the coming weeks I suspect we will see the progressives and populists swapping second place but don’t be surprised to see the progressive alternatives establish a clear lead over the populists by the end of 2015. A new political paradigm is establishing itself in Austria and party strategists across the spectrum are going to have to catch-up quick.

IMG_8418

Average national election poll rating based on the five most recent polls up until 12th April 2014:

  Polls Av Now GE 2013 Change
SPO 24.0% 26.82% -2.8%
OVP 19.6% 23.99% -4.4%
FPO 24.4% 20.51% 3.9%
Greens 13.2% 12.42% 0.8%
Team Stronach 1.2% 5.73% -4.5%
NEOS 13.8% 4.96% 8.8%
Others 3.8% 5.57% -1.8%

 

Sources:
Gallup/oe24 12-04-14
OGM/Kurier 06-04-14
Gallup/oe24 30-03-14
Gallup/oe24 23-03-14
meinungsraum/NEWS 20-03-14

 

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Filed under Austrian Politics, Politics